99counties.org

Sarah Palin could expect a lot of support in Iowa’s Republican caucuses if she launched a campaign for the 2012 presidential nomination, according to The Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll.

But the rising national figure, who is scheduled to stop in Iowa next month on her national book tour, would also have to contend with a lot of doubts about her — unlike her potential rivals, the poll found.

The first public poll to test Palin’s favorabilty in the leadoff nominating state found 55
percent of all Iowans hold an unfavorable opinion of Palin a little more than a year after the last election. Only 37 percent feel favorably about her.

And those feelings are intense: The percentage of Iowans who view Palin very unfavorably is more than twice as large as the percentage who view her very favorably.

But more than two-thirds of Republicans like what they see, making her a credible candidate for the 2012 caucuses should she decide to run for president, strategists say.

Palin fares well against possible rivals

Sixty-eight percent of Iowa Republicans view Palin favorably. That’s close to the 70 percent who hold favorable views of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won the 2008 caucuses, and it’s higher than the 66 percent who view former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich favorably. Palin’s number is also higher than that of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, runner-up in the 2008 caucuses, who is viewed favorably by 58 percent of the state’s Republicans.

Huckabee, Romney and Gingrich are considered 2012 presidential prospects.

“With those kind of numbers, if she were to become a candidate, while it’s not a sure thing, she would be starting out in a very good position,” said veteran Iowa GOP strategist David Roederer, who ran McCain’s 2008 Iowa campaign.

Tags: 2012, iowa, palin

From Cillizza

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) will headline an Iowa Republican party event this fall, a trip that will mark his visit to the politically crucial state since he has made clear his interest in pursuing a presidential bid in 2012.

Pawlenty will be the featured guest at the “Leadership for Iowa” gathering on Nov. 7 at the Iowa State Fairgrounds where he will appear with the party’s candidates for governor — including, presumably, former Gov. Terry Branstad (R), who formed an exploratory committee for the office today.

“Governor Pawlenty is an innovative, conservative leader and, as Iowa Republicans prepare for a robust gubernatorial primary election and nationally-watched general election for governor, his message of balanced budgets, lower taxes, and market-based reforms for health care and education will resonate with all Iowans,” said Matt Strawn, chairman of the Iowa Republican party.

Pawlenty has made no secret of the fact that he is putting together the pieces of a 2012 political operation. Last week, he announced a political inner circle that included Terry Nelson, former campaign manager for Sen. John McCain’s (Ariz.) presidential bid, former Bush White House political director Sara Taylor and former Republican Governors Association executive director Phil Musser.

Tags: 2012, caucus, pawlenty